Blitz Picks + Playoff Scenarios 11/6
The final week of the regular season has arrived for 4A, 3A, 2A and 1A teams across the state. Many have playoff bids wrapped up, others have a lot on the line in week 11, and others have already busted out the basketballs.
In this edition of Blitz Picks I’ll pick the games and give the best info I can about playoff scenarios and first round matchups if they’re already set.
The picks were pretty good again last week but dipped under 90% (barely) for the first time since week six.
Week 10: 25 for 28 (89.3%)
Week 9: 23 for 25 (92.0%)
Week 8: 22 for 24 (91.7%)
Week 7: 26 for 27 (96.3%)
Week 6: 20 for 25 (80.0%)
Week 5: 21 for 28 (75.0 %)
Week 4: 22 for 26 (84.6%)
Week 3: 22 for 29 (75.9%)
Week 2: 22 for 30 (73.3%)
Week 1: 25 for 30 (83.3%)
Season: 228 for 272 (83.8%)
Cancelled/Postponed
Brewer at Cooper (moved to Dec. 5)
Brownwood at Midlothian Heritage (Brownwood is the #4 seed from District 5-4A Division I and opens the playoffs at Kennedale on Nov. 13)
Coleman at Winters (Coleman shut down until Nov. 20, football season over despite Bluecats qualifying for playoffs)
Wichita Falls (2-2, 1-1) at Wylie (2-1, 0-1)
The Bulldogs FINALLY get a home game and it is a key one in the District 3-5A Division II race. Both teams got beat up by Rider (WF lost 53-17, Wylie lost 35-14), while the Coyotes do have another district game under their belts, a 36-35 win at Canyon Randall last week.
The pick: Wylie
Clyde (4-5, 3-1) at #6 Jim Ned (7-1, 4-0)
Both teams are playoff bound, but a Jim Ned win gives the Indians the outright district title, which would be their first since 2004. A Clyde win could get them a tri-championship with Jim Ned and Wall if the Hawks beat Early or an outright district title if they win and Wall loses to Early.
Playoff implications
A Jim Ned win gets them the 3-3A Division title and a bi-district playoff matchup with likely Boyd, Whitesboro or Paradise.
Clyde can do no worse than the #3 seed, which would likely match them up against Pilot Point, who closes the season against top ranked and district leading Brock.
The pick: Jim Ned
Early (5-4, 2-2) at Wall (6-3, 3-1)
Early hopes to keep momentum rolling from clinching a playoff berth last week, their first in 12 years, as they head to Wall for a tough game against the Hawks.
Playoff implications
Early could be the #3 seed with a win and will be the #4 seed with a loss. The #3 seed would get a bi-district game most likely against Pilot Point, while #4 draws top-ranked and unbeaten Brock. Wall would be #2 with a win, and could be in a three-way championship tiebreaker situation with Clyde and Jim Ned if the Hawks win and the Bulldogs upset the Indians. Boyd, Whitesboro or Paradise are the likely opponents for #2 seed from the district.
The pick: Wall
Breckenridge (0-8, 0-4) at TLCA San Angelo (0-9, 0-4)
Even this battle of winless teams has some intrigue, as Casey Pearce and the Buckaroos hope to break through and get their first victory for Pearce this season. Breckenridge had to forfeit their last two games to Wall and Jim Ned, while TLCA is coming off a 75-0 loss to Jim Ned and a 52-6 defeat at Early.
Playoff implications: None
The pick: Breckenridge
Ballinger (9-1, 4-0) at Sonora (4-5, 3-1)
The Bearcats can wrap up the outright district title, their first since 2008, with a win against the Broncos on the road. Ballinger has to be feeling pretty good about their team after taking down Bangs last week.
Playoff implications
Ballinger is the #1 seed with a win. Anthony would be the opponent as the #4 seed from District 1-3A Division II, but had to cancel their season finale against Alpine due to positive COVID tests. That means Odess Compass, who has forfeited to Tornillo Friday, is the #4 seed. If Ballinger loses to Sonora and Bangs beats Brady then those three are tri-champs and go to tiebreakers. If Sonora wins and Brady wins, then Ballinger would be the #2 seed and face Tornillo in the first round. Crane is the district champ and already has a Thursday night (11/12) matchup set with #4 seed Brady. Alpine is the #2 seed from District 1.
The pick: Ballinger
Brady (4-5, 2-2) at Bangs (7-1, 3-1)
The Dragons hope to bounce back from their first loss of the season last week to Ballinger as they host a Brady Bulldog squad that has won their last two to earn a trip to the postseason.
Playoff implications
Bangs is the #2 seed with a win or loss and a Ballinger win, which would get them a first round matchup with Tornillo (3-4, 1-2). A Bangs win with a Ballinger loss would put them in a three-way tie with the Bearcats and Broncos. A Bangs loss and a Sonora win would put the Dragons at #3 and they would face Alpine in the bi-district round.
The pick: Bangs
Dublin (1-7, 0-4) at Eastland (6-3, 4-0)
Eastland has wrapped up its first district title since 2013 with last week’s blowout win at Merkel. The Mavericks have won six in a row after dropping their first three games of the season. Dublin has lost seven straight after knocking off De Leon in their season opener.
Playoff implications
The Mavericks are locked in as the #1 seed and will either face 4-5 Callisburg or 1-8 Valley View in the bi-district playoffs. Callisburg and Valley View play Friday night with the winner making the playoffs and the loser staying home.
The pick: Eastland
Merkel (3-5, 1-3) at Comanche (6-3, 2-2)
The Badgers wrap up their first regular season under Britt Hart with a tough road game at Comanche. Merkel lost 77-41 to Eastland last week in their home finale.
Playoff implications
It looks like the Badgers could get into a three-way tie for the fourth spot from District 5-3A Division II with a win over the Indians plus a Millsap home loss to Jacksboro, which would get all three teams (Merkel, Comanche and Millsap) to 2-3. From there the points tiebreakers would decide the two teams in the playoffs and the one team left out. The #4 seed from the district gets the champ of the undecided District 6 (Holiday 4-0, Henrietta 3-1 or Wichita Falls City View 3-1) in the first round. A Comanche win means the Indians are in, but there could be a three-way tie between them, Millsap and Jacksboro if the Bulldogs upset Jacksboro. A Comanche win and a Jacksboro win gives the Indians the #3 seed.
The pick: Comanche
Forsan (5-3, 3-1) at Hawley (7-2, 4-0)
Hawley can win the District 3-2A Division I championship with a home win over Forsan. The Bearcats have collected four district wins so far, and have won six of their last seven games overall. Forsan knocked off Stamford last week 42-14 to put themselves in a position to win a district crown, which would be their first since 2015.
Playoff implications
Hawley is the #1 seed with a win and would face the winner of the Goldthwaite/De Leon game in the bi-district playoffs. A Hawley loss with an Anson win over Colorado City makes a three-way tie atop the District 3 standings. A Hawley loss and an Anson loss would give Forsan the #1 seed, Hawley the #2 seed and Anson the #3 seed. The eventual #2 draws Winters in the first round, while #3 gets the loser of the Cisco/San Saba showdown for the District 4 championship.
The pick: Hawley
Colorado City (0-9, 0-4) at Anson (6-2, 3-1)
The Tigers punched a playoff ticket with a road win at Haskell last week, while the Wolves hope to avoid their second consecutive 0-10 season with a win Friday night.
Playoff implications
Anson gets the #2 seed with a win and a Forsan loss to Hawley and gets in a three-way champion tiebreaker with a win and a Forsan win over Hawley. The Tigers would be #3 with a loss and face the loser of Cisco/San Saba. Earning the #2 seed would match them up with Winters, a team they already beat in the season opener 34-22.
The pick: Anson
Haskell (2-6, 1-3) at Stamford (4-5, 1-3)
The fourth and final playoff spot from District 3-2A Division I is up for grabs when these two old rivals meet in Stamford. Both are coming off tough defeats last week, as Stamford fell to Forsan 42-14 and Haskell lost to Anson 56-24.
Playoff implications
The winner gets in and will face the winner of the Cisco/San Saba game and the loser is done for the season.
The pick: Stamford
#8 Cisco (6-3, 4-0) at #6 San Saba (7-1, 4-0)
The huge matchup we’ve all been waiting for out of District 4-2A Division I goes down in San Saba Friday as the state ranked Armadillos host the state ranked Loboes. Cisco has won it’s four district games by an average of 31 points per game, while San Saba has cruised by nearly 47 points per game.
Playoff implications
The winner is the district champion and #1 seed and will face the winner of the Haskell/Stamford game in the bi-district round. The loser is #2 and will take on either Hawley, Forsan or Anson depending on how District 3 shakes out on Friday night.
The pick: Cisco
#2 Hamlin (8-0, 3-0) at Lockney (7-0, 2-0)
The Pied Pipers finally return to action and will face Lockney for the District 5-2A Division II title in their first game since October 16.
Playoff implications
The winner is the district champion and #1 seed and will take on Olney or Munday in the bi-district round. The Moguls and Cubs meet in Olney Friday in a battle for the #4 seed from 6-2A Division II. If Hamlin loses they would be the #2 seed, but if Lockney loses they’ll be either #2 or #3. The Longhorns and Ralls did not play this year, so that tie would be broken by points.
The pick: Hamlin
Roscoe (0-9, 0-3) at Crosbyton (1-8, 0-3)
Roscoe can make their only win of the season count in a big way Friday night. Despite going 0-9 so far, they can reach the playoffs with a victory.
Playoff implications
The winner is in the playoffs as the #4 seed, the loser is done. The winner will face Quanah, Archer City or Seymour. Quanah will be the District 6 champ with a win at home over Seymour.
The pick: Roscoe
Cross Plains (6-2, 2-1) at Meridian (3-6, 1-4)
The only game in District 8-2A Division II is a COVID make-up contest between the Buffaloes and Yellowjackets. Cross Plains lost the district championship game at Albany last week 35-0, while Meridian fell hard 75-25 at home to Santo.
Playoff implications
Win or lose, Cross Plains is already locked in as the #2 seed thanks to their win over Santo earlier in the season. The Buffaloes will face the loser of Friday’s Muenster/Petrolia game in Petrolia in District 7-2A Division II. Muenster is 6-3, 2-1 and Petrolia is 6-2, 2-1. Santo will take on the winner. Meridian cannot make the playoffs even if they win because of a 17-0 loss to fourth place Hico on Oct. 22. District champion Albany has their game with Chico set for Thursday, Nov. 12 in Graham.
The pick: Cross Plains
Ira (7-2, 3-0) at Aspermont (4-5, 1-2)
Ira can wrap up a perfect run through District 7-1A Division I with a win over the Hornets Friday night. Ira knocked off rival Hermleigh last week to set themselves up as district champs. Aspermont got a forfeit win over Rotan.
Playoff implications
Ira and Hermleigh are in as the two playoffs teams out of District 7. Ira will likely face #3 Westbrook if things go as expected and the Wildcats win at home against Bronte and #1 Sterling City takes care of Robert Lee. In that scenario Hermleigh, who has already wrapped up a 9-1 regular season, would face Sterling City in the bi-district round.
The pick: Ira
Rotan (6-3, 0-3) at Roby (5-4, 1-2)
Fisher County bragging rights will be on the line as the Yellowhammers make the short road trip to Roby. Both teams have had bounce back seasons, Roby improving from one win to five and Rotan from two wins to six. Rotan had to cancel their game against Aspermont due to COVID concerns last week, while Roby was off.
Playoff implications: None
The pick: Roby
Gorman (5-4, 2-1) at Baird (4-5, 2-1)
A playoff spot is on the line in Baird as the Bears host Gorman Friday. Baird beat Lingleville 66-16 last week to stay in the playoff chase, while Gorman knocked off Santa Anna 68-22.
Playoff implications
The winner is in the playoffs as the #2 seed out of District 13-1A Division I and will likely face 10th ranked Water Valley in the first round if the Wildcats take care of business against Paint Rock (2-5, 0-3). Eden (3-6, 2-1) and Irion County (8-1, 2-1) play at Eden Friday and are also in the playoff mix from 14-1A.
The pick: Gorman
Lingleville (1-8, 0-3) at #5 May (8-1, 3-0)
The fifth ranked Tigers wrap up the regular season with what shouldn’t be much of a contest against one-win Lingleville. May was off last week, but has won seven straight after a week two loss to now #1 ranked Sterling City 44-40.
Playoff implications
May is locked in as the top seed from 13-1A Division I and will face the winner of the Irion County/Eden game in the bi-district playoffs.
The pick: May
Blackwell (6-3, 3-0) at Loraine (6-3, 3-0)
The District 6-1A Division II title will be decided when the Bulldogs host Blackwell Friday night. Neither team has really been tested thus far in a district full of forfeits and blow out games against Olfen, Trent and TLCA Abilene. Loraine knocked off TLCA 70-0 last week and Olfen 48-0 the week before, while Blackwell beat Trent 62-12 in the only district game they actually got to play.
Playoff implications
The winner is the top seed in the playoffs and the loser is the #2 seed. The winner gets a little break in that they will get to avoid the likely District 5 champion, #1 ranked Balmorhea. The #2 seed is up for grabs between Buena Vista, Sierra Blanca and Sanderson.
The pick: Blackwell
Rule (6-3, 1-1) at Chillicothe (4-4, 1-1)
The Bobcats can return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 if they can win on the road at Chillicothe Friday night. Rule fell out of the district title chase with a 67-22 loss to Benjamin last week, while the Eagles shut out Harrold 55-0.
Playoff implications
The winner is in the postseason and the loser breaks out the basketballs on Monday. Benjamin is the District 8-1A Division II champ and will take on the loser of the huge District 7 championship matchup between #2 Motley County and #5 Jayton. The Rule/Chillicothe winner will face the winner of that showdown.
The pick: Rule
Abilene Christian (4-1) at Midland Trinity (1-3)
These two wrap up the regular season Friday night in Midland. The Panthers suffered their first loss to Wichita Falls Wichita Christian a week ago, while Trinity fell by 50 to Wichita Falls Notre Dame.
Playoff implications
Every team in TAPPS makes the playoffs this season.
The pick: Abilene Christian
