Blitz Picks - Week 15

WEEK 1 PICKS: 34-41, 82.9%
WEEK 2 PICKS: 40-50, 80%
WEEK 3 PICKS: 39-51, 76.5%
WEEK 4 PICKS: 36-44, 81.8%
WEEK 5 PICKS: 42-48, 87.5%
WEEK 6 PICKS: 26-31, 83.8%
WEEK 7 PICKS: 40-43, 93%
WEEK 8 PICKS: 36-43, 83.7%
WEEK 9 PICKS: 36-45, 80%
WEEK 10 PICKS: 41-47, 87.2%
WEEK 11 PICKS: 34-39, 87.2%
WEEK 12 PICKS: 31-37, 83.8%
WEEK 13 PICKS: 21-25, 84%
WEEK 14 PICKS: 11-11, 100%
SEASON: 467-555, 84.1%

*Rankings are from Dave Campbell’s Texas Football.

**Reach out to me if you’d like to sponsor a week of content on bigcountryblitz.com and Big Country Blitz social media! Playoff weeks are still available. Email cody@bigcountryblitz.com

***All picks are straight-up, not against the spread.

ABILENE HIGH (11-2) VS. #1 ALEDO (13-0) - FRIDAY, 7 P.M. - TARLETON STATE

SERIES HISTORY: First meeting

Two traditional Texas high school football powers meet with the 5A Division I Region I title on the line Friday night in Stephenville.

Hat tip to Lance Fleming for thinking of this, but this game may feature the most combined championships between two teams meeting in a playoff game. Abilene High (seven) and Aledo (11) have an amazing 18 titles between them!

The Eagles got to this point with a 27-16 win over Justin Northwest last week, while Aledo took down previously unbeaten Red Oak 59-35. The Bearcats will be the third straight District 3 team the Eagles have faced after wins over Denton Ryan and Northwest.

Aledo enters on a 27-game winning streak and as the defending state champion. They beat College Station last season to claim their 11th crown, most of any program in Texas high school football history.

Abilene High is in the regional finals, or state quarterfinals, for the first time since 2011, when they lost to Mansfield Timberview.

The Eagles have leaned on their defense over the last two weeks, one that forced four turnovers in both games. They will need to be at their best again this week against an Aledo offense that has been held under 30 only twice all season.

There are now three common opponents between the two teams. Denton Ryan, Northwest, and Lubbock Cooper.

Denton Ryan: Abilene won 31-21, Aledo won 25-19
Northwest: Abilene won 27-16, Aledo won 38-13
Lubbock Cooper: Abilene won 38-35, Aledo won 48-31

The Bearcats, once again, are no joke. They currently have seven players that have verbally committed to play in college at the FBS or FCS level, including quarterback Hauss Hejny (TCU), linebacker Davhon Keys (LSU), and cornerbacks Jaden Allen (Arkansas) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Arizona State).

Points Per Game
Abilene: 40.5
Aledo: 54.4

Points Allowed Per Game
Abilene: 17.7
Aledo: 16.7

Best Win
Abilene: 31-21 over Denton Ryan
Aledo: 25-19 over Denton Ryan

Up Next: winner of Forney (12-1) vs. Lancaster (8-5)

STAT LEADERS

Dylan Slack: 183-257, 2272 yds, 26 TD, 4 int; 66 yds, 4 TD rushing
Bam Rashaw: 199 yds, 2 TD rushing
Chad Lara: 552 yds, 11 TD
Brayden Henry: 852 yds, 13 TD rushing; 31-60, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 int passing; 15 rec, 127 yds, 3 TD
Ryland Bradford: 54 rec, 904 yds, 10 TD; 89 yds, 2 TD rushing; 2 kickoff return for TD
Jackson Howle: 53 rec, 569 yds, 4 TD
Bryce Neves: 108 tkl, 8.5 tfl, 5 int, 5 ff, 3 fr, 1 sack

Hauss Hejny: 129-184, 2279 yds, 23 TD, 3 int; 734 yds, 11 TD rushing
Ray Guillory: 1171 yds, 17 TD rushing
Trace Clarkson: 44 rec, 775 yds, 6 TD
Dahvon Keys: 143 tkl, 20.5 tfl, 4 sacks, 3 int

The Pick: Aledo

#6 BROWNWOOD (12-1) VS. DECATUR (9-4) - FRIDAY, 7 P.M. - MCLANE STADIUM, WACO

SERIES HISTORY: First meeting

Brownwood continues its best season in years with its toughest test of the playoffs thus far against Decatur.

The Eagles lost their first three games of the season and four of their first five, but have reeled off eight wins in a row to reach the fourth round. They beat Estacado last week 52-21 to advance, while the Lions knocked off a team from the Eagles’ district, Springtown, 37-17.

Decatur made it all the way to the state semifinals last season, falling to China Spring 33-27. They have reached four semifinals in program history but have not yet earned a trip to the state title game.

The Lions are no strangers to deep playoff runs, but this is the farthest they have been since 2015 and they haven’t reached the semifinals since 2010 or the state finals since 1981.

The teams have three common opponents: Estacado, Stephenville and Springtown.

Estacado: Brownwood won 35-14, Decatur won 52-21
Springtown: Brownwood won 37-17, Decatur won 23-17
Stephenville: Brownwood lost 27-17, Decatur lost 56-55

The main focus for the Lions will be trying to stop running back Nate Palmer, who is verbally committed to TCU. He ran for 224 yards and five touchdowns last week in the win over Estacado.

Points Per Game
Brownwood: 40.3
Decatur: 43.5

Points Allowed Per Game
Brownwood: 14.5
Decatur: 21.7

Best Win
Brownwood: 35-21 at Wylie
Decatur: 52-21 over Estacado

Up Next: winner of Stephenville (12-1) vs. Anna (12-1)

STAT LEADERS

Ike Hall: 98-177, 1750 yds, 19 TD, 6 int; 1649 yds, 23 TD rushing
Levi Pearson: 571 yds, 5 TD rushing
Jaylan Brown: 488 yds, 9 TD rushing
Carson Noe: 36 rec, 671 yds, 7 TD
Aaron Edmonds: 23 rec, 281 yds, 2 TD
Morsello Hooker: 17 rec, 436 yds, 9 TD; 42 tkl, 3 int
Sam Kallman: 137 tkl, 8 tfl, 6 sacks, 1 fr
Steve Ramirez: 138 tkl, 8 tfl, 4 sacks, 2 int
Noah Gonzalez: 122 tkl, 7 tfl, 2 sacks

Jed Ross: 170-251, 2091 yds, 21 TD, 4 int; 112 yds, 7 TD rushing
Nate Palmer: 1770 yds, 28 TD rushing; 27 rec, 226 yds, 3 TD
Abram Graham: 638 yds, 5 TD rushing; 13 rec, 237 yds, 4 TD
Landon Felts: 47 rec, 544 yds, 3 TD
Antwan Gilbreath Jr.: 37 rec, 517 yds, 5 TD

The Pick: Brownwood

#6 HAWLEY (11-2) VS. #4 STRATFORD (13-0) - FRIDAY, 6 P.M. - LOWREY FIELD, LUBBOCK

SERIES HISTORY: Stratford leads 2-0

After cruising past Sonora, the defending state champions get set to face unbeaten Stratford in what will be their toughest test to date in the playoffs.

Stratford beat New Deal 53-16 last week to advance and knocked Stamford out of the postseason 22-7 the week before. That 15-point win over the Bulldogs is the closest game the Elks have had since all the way back in week two, when they beat Sunray, who is still in the 2A D2 playoffs, 23-20.

Hawley has seemingly gotten stronger week by week and is playing December football for the third year in a row and looking for their third straight trip to the state championship game. The Bearcats have won nine in a row since a week four loss to Albany.

Bryce Braden is the heart of the Elk squad, leading the team in passing, rushing and tackles on defense.

Panhandle and Stamford are the only teams that both squads have met this season. Hawley beat Panhandle 59-16 two weeks ago in the playoffs, and Stratford got past them 34-24 in district play. Hawley rallied past Stamford 34-30, while the Elks beat them, as mentioned above, 22-7.

The Elks are in the fourth round of the playoffs for the fifth time in seven years. They fell in area to Cisco last season but won it all in 2A D2 in 2021.

Maybe I’m making a homer pick here, but I feel like the big play capability of Hawley can keep them in the game and get them past Stratford.

The Bearcats and Elks are meeting for the first time since 2017, when Stratford won a regional playoff game 58-12. They also knocked Hawley out of the playoffs in 2015 in the area round.

Points Per Game
Hawley: 37.6
Stratford: 45.3

Points Allowed Per Game
Hawley: 15
Stratford: 10.7

Best Win
Hawley: 59-16 over Panhandle
Stratford: 22-7 over Stamford

Up Next: winner of Tolar (12-1) vs. Marlin (11-2)

STAT LEADERS

Keagan Ables: 189-303, 3207 yds, 43 TD, 2 int; 284 yds, 5 TD rushing; 36 tkl, 3 int
Landon Sykora: 800 yds, 9 TD rushing; 91 tkl, 7 tfl, 3 sacks, 2 int, 4 fr
Diontay Ramon: 75 rec, 1340 yds, 18 TD; 191 yds, 4 TD rushing; 79 tkl, 12 tfl, 4 int
Chandlin Myers: 48 rec, 714 yds, 11 TD; 35 tkl, 1 tfl
Hunter Hudson: 83 tkl, 17 tfl, 5.5 sacks

Bryce Braden: 103-169, 1720 yds, 22 TD, 6 int; 1153 yds, 20 TD rushing; 134 tkl, 16 tfl, 10 sacks
Josue Licon: 862 yds, 13 TD rushing; 12 rec, 258 yds, 4 TD
Julio Valdez: 37 rec, 876 yds, 8 TD; 107 tkl, 9 tfl

The Pick: Hawley

#1 ALBANY (13-0) VS. #4 COLLINSVILLE (12-1) - THURSDAY, 7 P.M. - IOWA PARK

SERIES HISTORY: Albany leads 1-0

Albany got past Collinsville in the regional finals last season on their way to winning it all, and they hope history repeats itself this week.

The Lions just did get by Muenster last week 19-14 to move on, while the Pirates rolled past Roscoe 50-12.

The Lions have not had many close calls this season, and the same can be said for Collinsville. Other than a 42-35 loss to Cooper in week four, the Pirates closest contest was a 23-point victory over Celeste in district play.

The two teams have four common opponents this season: Miles, Roscoe, Muenster, and Celeste. They went a combined 8-0 against them.

Miles: Albany won 41-0, Collinsville won 69-21
Roscoe: Albany won 44-7, Collinsville won 50-12
Celeste: Albany won 56-0, Collinsville won 40-17
Muenster: Albany won 19-14, Collinsville won 51-27

I expect last week’s close game to be a wakeup call for Albany. The Lions dominated Miles, a predominantly passing team like Collinsville, 41-0. Their size and toughness up front and in the running game should give them an edge in a close ballgame.

Points Per Game
Albany: 45.1
Collinsville: 51.8

Points Allowed Per Game
Albany: 6.9
Collinsville: 14.7

Best Win
Albany: 27-14 over Hawley
Collinsville: 51-27 over Muenster

Up Next: winner of Clarendon (10-3) vs. Sunray (11-2)

STAT LEADERS

Chip Chambers: 123-215, 1976 yds, 30 TD, 12 int; 91 yds, 2 TD rushing
Adam Hill: 2112 yds, 35 TD rushing; 10 rec, 171 yds, 5 TD; 90 tkl, 25 tfl, 12.5 sacks
Cason Fairchild: 50 rec, 928 yds, 12 TD; 44 tkl, 5 int
Jaxson Hoel: 129 tkl, 8 tfl, 2 sacks, 2 fr

Logan Jenkins: 355-484, 4828 yds, 65 TD, 4 int; 457 yds, 8 TD rushing
Parker Wells: 389 yds, 8 TD rushing
Rylan Newman: 80 rec, 1047 yds, 13 TD
Colin Barnes: 83 rec, 1315 yds, 17 TD
Garrett Trevino: 147 tkl, 20 tfl

The Pick: Albany

#4 WESTBROOK (12-1) VS. #7 HAPPY (12-1) - FRIDAY, 6:30 P.M. - LUBBOCK CHRISTIAN

SERIES HISTORY: Westbrook leads 3-0

The Wildcats and Cowboys meet for the fourth time in three years and for the third straight season in the state semifinals.

Westbrook beat Happy 54-20 in 2021 and 40-30 last year to advance to state, and also knocked them off 62-16 in the 2022 season opener.

The Cowboys are hoping the fourth time is the charm. They outlasted previously unbeaten Miami 30-22 last week to stay alive and beat previously undefeated Knox City 62-34 the week before that. Knox City is, of course, the only team that beat Westbrook this season, taking them down 34-24 in week one. Happy’s only loss of the year was also in week one, 50-24 to 1A D2 semifinalist Klondike.

Westbrook is coming off its highest-scoring game of the season last week, a 110-65 victory over Borden County in Sweetwater.

The Wildcats have reeled off 12 consecutive mercy rule wins since that week one loss, but the Cowboys have had to pull out some close ones over the past three weeks. They have four single-digit victories this season.

The Cowboys defense is stout, but Westbrook has too many weapons. Look for the Wildcats to pull away and earn a third straight trip to Jerry World.

Points Per Game
Westbrook: 59.6
Happy: 46.9

Points Allowed Per Game
Westbrook: 16.4
Happy: 23.5

Best Win
Westbrook: 60-14 over Jonesboro
Happy: 62-34 over Knox City

Up Next: winner of Gordon (13-0) vs. Jonesboro (12-1)

STAT LEADERS

Parker Matlock: 25-45, 412 yds, 8 TD, 2 int; 4 rec, 102 yds, 2 TD; 102 tkl, 19 tfl, 5 fr, 1 int
Keegan Gilbreath: 1355 yds, 35 TD rushing; 12-18, 319 yds, 8 TD passing; 8 rec, 137 yds, 2 TD; 96 tkl, 8 tfl, 5 int
Grayson Jeffrey: 1204 yds, 25 TD rushing; 11 rec, 237 yds, 3 TD; 88 tkl, 2 tfl, 2 int, 7 pbu
Aiden Sullivan: 13 rec, 311 yds, 5 TD; 78 tkl, 16 tfl, 8 sacks, 9 fr, 9 ff
Ethan King: 90 tkl, 7 tfl, 9 sacks, 4 fr
Damien Stewart: 87 tkl, 12 tfl

Sixmanfootball.com Computer Rankings:
Westbrook: #1 in 1A D1
Happy: #3 in 1A D1

Sixmanfootball Spread: Westbrook by 9

The Pick: Westbrook

#1 BENJAMIN (13-0) VS. #5 KLONDIKE (11-1) - SATURDAY, 4 P.M. - SWEETWATER

SERIES HISTORY: First meeting

The Mustangs machine rolls into the Mustang Bowl Saturday afternoon to face Klondike for a spot in the state title game.

Benjamin got past Jayton last week 85-40 to advance, while Klondike knocked off Balmorhea 100-62.

While the Mustangs are looking for a second straight trip to state, the Cougars are in the state semifinals for the first time since 1995, when they fell to Amherst. They have yet to reach the final game of the season in program history, and they will have a tall task to get there this season.

Both teams have played Jayton and Loraine this season. The Mustangs won last week, but Klondike fell to the Jaybirds 55-34 in week two. Both teams beat Loraine without AJ Williams, Klondike 72-22, and Benjamin 61-16.

Grayson Ridgon has proven to be unstoppable again this season, and he ran and passed for 496 yards and eight touchdowns against Jayton last week. Keegan Hayes added four touchdowns, and the freshman has given the Mustangs a great second weapon on offense. The Cougars can score as well, but I don’t see anyone stopping the Mustangs from marching back to Arlington.

Points Per Game
Benjamin: 69.4
Klondike: 68.8

Points Allowed Per Game
Benjamin: 19.2
Klondike: 25.6

Best Win
Benjamin: 85-40 over Jayton
Klondike: 50-24 over Happy

Up Next: winner of Richland Springs (13-0) vs. Ogelsby (12-0)

STAT LEADERS

Grayson Rigdon: 1791 yds, 33 TD rushing; 46-58, 987 yds, 15 TD passing; 22 rec, 634 yds, 18 TD; 84 tkl, 3 ff, 7 int, 6 defensive TD; 4 kickoff returns for TD, 1 punt return for TD
Keegan Hayes: 543 yds, 9 TD rushing; 19 rec, 516 yds, 8 TD; 30-47, 758 yds, 21 TD, 1 int passing; 106 tkl, 2 ff, 2 int, 2 defensive TD
Weston Weatherford: 16 rec, 299 yds, 5 TD; 73 tkl, 2 int, 2 ff, 1 fr
Tallon Hayes: 103 tkl, 4 ff, 5 fr, 1 int

Sixmanfootball.com Computer Rankings:
Benjamin: #1 in 1A D2
Klondike: #2 in 1A D2

Sixmanfootball Spread: Benjamin by 8

The Pick: Benjamin

ABILENE CHRISTIAN (11-2) VS. CONROE COVENANT (12-1) - THURSDAY, 7 P.M. - WACO ISD STADIUM

SERIES HISTORY: Conroe Covenant

The Panthers are back in the state championship game for the first time in a dozen years and looking to bring home their fifth state title.

Read a full preview of the game here: Panthers Hope to Finish Storybook Season with State Championship Win

Points Per Game
ACS: 51.2
Covenant: 61.7

Points Allowed Per Game
ACS: 31.8
Covenant: 24.8

Best Win
ACS: 68-44 over Hermleigh
Conroe Covenant: 74-62 over Pasadena First Baptist

Sixmanfootball.com Computer Rankings:
Abilene Christian: #2 in TAPPS DII
Conroe Covenant: #1 in TAPPS DII

Sixmanfootball Spread: Conroe Covenant by 3

The Pick: Abilene Christian