Blitz Picks - Week 5
We are nearing the midway point of the regular season and there are some great games on the schedule. Abilene High and Abilene Christian join Cooper in the “Playing District Games” club, but the rest of the Big Country still has a little bit of time before they move on from non-district play.
The predicting took a little dip in Week 4 from the Week 3 peak, but the season percentage stays the same.
Season: 121-160, 75.6%
Week 1: 31-41, 75.6%
Week 2: 29-41, 70.7%
Week 3: 30-37, 81.1%
Week 4: 31-41, 75.6%
On to the picks for Week 5!
Abilene High (2-2) at Permian (3-1)
No easing into District 2-6A play for the Eagles as they matchup with Mojo right out of the gates. The Panthers have won three of their first four games, including a 49-14 win over Mesquite Poteet last week. The teams have a common opponent and a common loss: Amarillo Tascosa. The Rebels beat the Eagles 40-21 in week one in Amarillo and beat the Panthers by the same score in Odessa. The return of Da’King Thomas from injury was huge for Abilene High last week, and he may have to be even better to help the Eagles outscore Permian, who are averaging 38.3 points per game in their fourth season under head coach Jeff Ellison.
THE SPREAD: PERMIAN BY 18
THE PICK: PERMIAN
Granbury (3-1, 1-0) at Cooper (2-2, 0-1)
After a loss in the district opener to Justin Northwest, the Cougars find themselves in what could be considered a must-win (already) in week two against Granbury. The Pirates opened district action with a 49-28 win at home over Crowley, and have won three straight after a season opening loss to Fort Worth Paschal. Granbury looks to be one of the teams that will be in the mix for a playoff spot, meaning the Cougars need to defend the home field Friday to make sure they’re in the playoff mix themselves come November.
THE SPREAD: COOPER BY 10
THE PICK: COOPER
Brownwood (2-2) at Wylie (1-3)
The Bulldogs host old rival Brownwood for Homecoming, hoping they can get on track in their final non-district game of 2021. Wylie gave up nearly 600 yards to Stephenville, a member of District 5-4A Division I like Brownwood, in a 37-7 loss. Wylie hasn’t been able to get the running game the last two weeks, running for just 21 yards on 21 carries against Cooper and only 55 yards on 32 carries at Stephenville. If Wylie can get that part of their offense rolling against a Brownwood defense that has given up 251.8 yards per game so far this season, they’ll have a good shot at snapping their two-game losing streak.
THE SPREAD: WYLIE BY 12
THE PICK: WYLIE
#1 Jim Ned (4-0) at Snyder (4-0)
We have a somewhat surprising battle of unbeatens Friday night in Snyder as the Tigers and Indians are two of the 176 teams in Texas still perfect after four weeks. Jim Ned got past Cisco last week, while Snyder crushed another opponent (this time San Angelo Lake View) 42-7. The Tigers have won their four games by an average of 37.3, but those four squads are only a combined 4-12 on the season. The Indians will be a much bigger test in what should be a rocking Tiger Stadium on Friday night.
THE SPREAD: JIM NED BY 29
THE PICK: JIM NED
Sweetwater (1-3) at Clyde (0-4)
These two teams have struggled under new head coaches to kick off 2021 and would love to get on track before district play begins. The Mustangs fell at home to Boerne last week 51-16, while Clyde came up short against Ballinger 21-13. Sweetwater won the 2020 matchup between the two 54-10 at the Mustang Bowl.
THE SPREAD: SWEETWATER BY 24
THE PICK: SWEETWATER
Breckenridge (1-3) at #4 Holliday (4-0)
An extremely tough non-district slate gets even tougher for the Buckaroos with a road trip to fourth ranked Holliday this week. The Eagles got past Bells on the road last week 27-14, the same team that beat Breckenridge 40-21 in week two. The Bucks have shown improvement in year two under Casey Pearce and will have to take another big step forward to upset Holliday Friday night.
THE SPREAD: HOLLIDAY BY 36
THE PICK: HOLLIDAY
Early (4-0) at Grape Creek (1-3)
The Longhorns haven’t been tested so far this season, and it doesn’t look like that will be the case in their non-district finale either. Early pulled away in the second half to beat Merkel a week ago, while the Eagles were 49-0 shut out victims at Coleman. Early shut out Grape Creek 36-0 in 2020, and the Longhorns would love to head into their bye week at 5-0 ahead of the district opener at top-ranked Jim Ned on October 8.
THE SPREAD: EARLY BY 39
THE PICK: EARLY
Llano (3-1) at Ballinger (2-1)
The Bearcats look to extend their winning streak to three against a strong Llano squad from the 3A Division I ranks. The Yellowjackets took care of Ballinger 34-0 last year on their way to a run to the state semifinals, and have won three straight this season over Sonora, Austin Crockett and San Saba after a season opening loss to Gatesville. Ballinger got past Clyde last week on the road after shutting out Colorado City in week two.
THE SPREAD: LLANO BY 7
THE PICK: LLANO
Bangs (0-3) at #7 Hawley (4-0)
Hawley has four dominating wins so far this season, by an average of 41.3 points per game, and likely will have a shot at another as they host a struggling Bangs squad Friday. The Dragons have been bitten by the turnover bug so far in 2021, turning it over five times in losses to Florence and Hamilton and twice against Early. They will have to take care of the ball and make big strides defensively to have a shot against the explosive Hawley offense.
THE SPREAD: HAWLEY BY 49
THE PICK: HAWLEY
Coahoma (2-2) at Merkel (2-2)
The Badgers have dropped two in a row against Hawley and Early, but have a shot at getting win number three as they wrap up non-district play against Coahoma. The Bulldogs have split their four games, beating Miles (54-0) and Colorado City (26-12) and losing to Forsan (35-14) and Eldorado (56-29).
THE SPREAD: PICK ‘EM
THE PICK: MERKEL
Anson (2-2) at #4 Albany (3-0)
The Lions have yet to be tested this season, beating Dublin, Hamlin and Haskell by over 46 points per game, and hope to keep rolling as they welcome Anson to town this week. The Tigers topped Hamlin last week to level their record at 2-2, and this trip to Albany will be their first road game of the season. That is a tough road opener for the the Tigers, who will kickoff district play at Stamford October 8.
THE SPREAD: ALBANY BY 37
THE PICK: ALBANY
Colorado City (0-3) at Coleman (3-0)
The Wolves have shown improvement so far in 2021 but are still in search of their first win since 2018. Colorado City will have their biggest challenge of the young season at Coleman this week, as the Bluecats have wins over Miles, Anson and Grape Creek by a combined 106-6 (and would have been more if their 24-0 victory over Miles hadn’t been called in the first half).
THE SPREAD: COLEMAN BY 37
THE PICK: COLEMAN
Hamlin (0-4) at Haskell (1-3)
The Pied Pipers and Indians have had their struggles early in the season and hope to get some good things going in this matchup. Hamlin played very well against Anson in the first half last week before ending up on the bad side of a 54-7 decision, while Haskell has dropped three in a row to Archer City, Cross Plains and Albany after a season opening win over Quanah.
THE SPREAD: HASKELL BY 4
THE PICK: HASKELL
Stamford (2-2) at Archer City (1-1)
The Bulldogs are away from home for a third straight week, but this will be the only true road game of the three. Stamford lost a neutral site matchup with Rosebud-Lott in Weatherford but followed up with a win over Sudan in Post to even its record at 2-2. They’ll face an Archer City squad that has only played two games this season, a 34-14 win at Haskell and a 43-28 loss to 3-1 Henrietta.
THE SPREAD: ARCHER CITY BY 19
THE PICK: ARCHER CITY
Comanche (0-4) at #5 Cisco (3-1)
The Loboes return home after losing for the first time in 2021 at Jim Ned. Cisco welcomes in a winless Comanche squad. The Indians have losses to Mason (34-13), Brady (46-19), Early (58-14) and Tolar (42-25) on their ledger in their first season under head coach Jake Escobar. Comanche did beat Cisco a year ago 14-7.
THE SPREAD: CISCO BY 33
THE PICK: CISCO
Hico (2-2) at Winters (0-3)
The Blizzards have battled tough competition and a COVID outbreak so far in 2021 and would love to turn the page when they host Hico. Winters dropped to 0-3 with a 49-0 loss at Hawley a week ago, while the Tigers picked up a 24-7 win over Junction to get to 2-2. Hico beat Waco Texas Wind 41-6 in week one and suffered losses to Moody and Hamilton in weeks two and three.
THE SPREAD: WINTERS BY 5
THE PICK: WINTERS
New Home (3-1) at Roscoe (3-1)
The Plowboys are off to a great start and welcome a New Home team that is also 3-1 to Plowboy Field for a good matchup Friday night. Roscoe has won three in a row over Stamford, Miles and Christoval, while the Leopards have double-digit wins over Odessa Compass Academy, Plains and Floydada on their ledger to go along with a 49-0 loss to Lubbock Roosevelt. New Home won the 2020 game between the two 46-12 on their home field.
THE SPREAD: ROSCOE BY 11
THE PICK: ROSCOE
Miles (1-3) at Cross Plains (3-1)
The Buffaloes look to close out non-district play with their fourth win in five tries as they welcome Miles to Callahan County. Cross Plains earned a hard-fought win at De Leon last week to get to 3-1, while Miles got win number one of the season 55-12 at Munday. Cross Plains got the best of the Bulldogs 41-12 in 2020.
THE SPREAD: CROSS PLAINS BY 17
THE PICK: CROSS PLAINS
Aspermont (1-3) at TLCA Abilene (0-4) — thursday
The Hornets earned their first victory of the season with a 58-12 takedown of Lueders-Avoca last week, while the Eagles dropped a 51-6 decision to TLCA Midland. This will be the Eagles fourth straight home game. Aspermont won this matchup in 2020 54-6.
THE SPREAD DCTF: ASPERMONT BY 29
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: ASPERMONT BY 45
THE PICK: ASPERMONT
Wilson at Hermleigh
Hermleigh has not been tested this season and likely won’t be touched this week. Wilson has been 45’d by Rule, Whiteface, Jayton and Lubbock Kingdom Prep so far this season, while the Cardinals have mercy-rule wins over Lubbock All Saints, Avalon, Lueders-Avoca and Robert Lee. Hermleigh beat Wilson 54-0 last season.
THE SPREAD DCTF: HERMLEIGH BY 56
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: HERMLEIGH BY 45
THE PICK: HERMLEIGH
Ira (2-1) at Highland (3-1)
This matchup is one of the best six-man games in the Big Country this week. Both teams enter on two-game winning streaks: the Hornets look for a third straight victory after taking down Loraine and Blackwell the past two weeks while Ira is coming off wins over Buena Vista and Knox City. The Bulldogs still haven’t played a home game this season. That will come next week against Loraine. Ira outlasted the Hornets 70-52 in 2020.
THE SPREAD DCTF: IRA BY 8
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: IRA BY 10
THE PICK: IRA
Benjamin (4-0) at #10 Roby (3-0)
The Mustangs and Lions hope to stay hot as they meet in Roby this week. The Lions, in the 1A Division I state rankings at #10 this week, did not get to play last week (a COVID cancellation vs. Rule) and will be ready to get back on the field in their second-to-last non-district tune-up. Benjamin has mercy-rule wins over Moran, Aspermont and Northside to go along with a 54-46 win over Crowell in week two. Roby has easy wins over Sands, Highland and Bronte so far in 2021.
THE SPREAD DCTF: PICK ‘EM
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: ROBY BY 45
THE PICK: ROBY
Robert Lee (1-3) at Rotan (4-0)
Rotan looks to stay perfect (they are one of three unbeaten teams from District 7-1A Division I) as they host Robert Lee this week. The Yellowhammers haven’t been tested in their four contests this season, while the Steers have been 45’d in their three losses to Water Valley, Irion County and Hermleigh. Robert Lee did beat Veribest 42-22 in week three. Rotan won at Robert Lee 61-14 in 2020.
THE SPREAD DCTF: ROTAN BY 23
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: ROTAN BY 34
THE PICK: ROTAN
#9 Westbrook (2-2) at #2 Strawn (4-0)
Westbrook gets ready for another tough challenge on their non-district slate as they visit Strawn this week. The Greyhounds check in as the number two ranked team in 1A Division II and are coming off a 60-15 win at Gorman. The Wildcats dropped a 55-34 decision to now number five Water Valley last week to fall to 2-2. Strawn will be the fourth ranked team (at the time) that the Wildcats have faced this season.
THE SPREAD DCTF: STRAWN BY 8
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: WESTBROOK BY 24
THE PICK: WESTBROOK
Blum (1-3) at #1 May (4-0)
The Tigers hope to keep their number one ranking as they face Blum once again. May beat Blum twice in 2020, including their classic 92-86 overtime victory in the state semifinals. The Tigers have been very impressive against a tough schedule that includes wins over Borden County and Sterling City. Blum beat Aquilla in week one, but has lost to Waco Live Oak, Gorman and #4 Jonesboro the past three weeks.
THE SPREAD DCTF: MAY BY 57
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: MAY BY 45
THE PICK: MAY
Santa Anna (4-0) at Medina (1-2)
The Mountaineers put their perfect record on the line as they visit Medina this week. Santa Anna has only really been tested by Abilene Christian, an 84-46 win, while Medina is coming off a 93-74 loss at Rochelle. The Bobcats lone victory is over Cherokee, 72-40, in week one.
THE SPREAD DCTF: N/A
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: SANTA ANNA BY 25
THE PICK: SANTA ANNA
Zephyr (0-4) at Paint Rock (3-1)
The Bulldogs are still looking for win number one as they head to Paint Rock to battle the Indians. Zephry suffered their worst loss of the season last week, falling to Blanket 61-0. Paint Rock has wins over Lohn, Olfen and Trent and a loss to Rochelle. The Bulldogs won this matchup last season 51-6 for their only win of the year.
THE SPREAD DCTF: PAINT ROCK BY 22
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: ZEPHYR BY 9
THE PICK: PAINT ROCK
Brookesmith (1-3) at BLACKWELL (0-4) — SATURDAY
The Hornets host Brookesmith for Homecoming on Saturday looking to bust into the win column. Brookesmith has lost two straight to Evant and Santa Anna after beating TLCA Abilene, while the Hornets are coming off their best outing of the year in a 40-32 loss to unbeaten Throckmorton. Blackwell beat the Mustangs a year ago 56-8.
THE SPREAD DCTF: BLACKWELL BY 16
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: BLACKWELL BY 45
THE PICK: BLACKWELL
Lueders-AvoCa (0-2) at Loraine (2-2)
The Bulldogs look to snap a two-game losing streak as they welcome winless Lueders-Avoca to town. The Riaders have losses to 1A D1 Hermleigh and Aspermont this season, so this will be their first shot against a fellow D2 squad. Loraine knows all about playing up after losses to Westbrook and Highland the last two weeks. The Bulldogs topped the Raiders on the road in 2020 70-20.
THE SPREAD DCTF: LORAINE BY 44
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: LORAINE BY 45
THE PICK: LORAINE
TLCA Midland (1-3) at Trent (1-3)
The Gorillas have dropped two in a row after snapping their long losing streak, and would love to get back in the win column against a team with the same 1-3 record. TLCA Midland picked up their first win of 2021 last week at TLCA Abilene. Prior to the win they had dropped games to Midland Trinity, Klondike and Odessa Permian Basin Athletics CO-OP. Trent went the distance last week in a 59-38 loss to Paint Rock.
THE SPREAD DCTF: TLCA MIDLAND BY 11
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: TLCA MIDLAND BY 41
THE PICK: TLCA MIDLAND
Paint Creek (3-0) at Harrold (1-0)
The Pirates and Hornets meet for the second time this season Friday night. Paint Creek returned to football with a 52-0 win over Harrold in week one and still haven’t tasted defeat in 2021. The Pirates rolled past Lohn Saturday night to get to 3-0.
THE SPREAD DCTF: HARROLD BY 1
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: PAINT CREEK BY 45
THE PICK: PAINT CREEK
Blanket (3-1) at Gholson (0-4)
The Tigers try to win their fourth game in five tries as they head to winless Gholson this week. Gholson has suffered mercy-rule losses Bynum, Three Way, Walnut Springs and Waco Vanguard this season, while Blanket is coming off their biggest blowout win of the season, 61-0, over Zephyr.
THE SPREAD DCTF: BLANKET BY 28
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: BLANKET BY 45
THE PICK: BLANKET
Lohn (0-3) at Rising Star (2-2)
The Wildcats have alternated wins and losses this season, so this week should be a win if that holds true. Rising Star dropped a 49-18 decision to Three Way last week to fall to 2-2. Lohn has yet to pick up a win, suffering losses to Paint Rock, Trent and Paint Creek.
THE SPREAD DCTF: RISING STAR BY 18
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: RISING STAR BY 45
THE PICK: RISING STAR
Newcastle (2-1) at Ranger (1-3)
The Bulldogs will try for a third straight week to pick up their first six-man home victory, but it won’t be easy against Newcastle. While the Bulldogs are coming off losses to Lometa and Gold-Burg, Newcastle has played three games decided by seven total points this season, nearly unheard of in six-man football. Last week the Bobcats beat Crowell 64-62. They opened the year with a 47-46 win at Meadow and fell in week two to Gordon 54-50.
THE SPREAD DCTF: NEWCASTLE BY 16
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: NEWCASTLE BY 45
THE PICK: NEWCASTLE
Abilene Christian (1-2) at Amarillo San Jacinto (0-3) — SATURDAY
The Panthers look to open district play with a road victory in Amarillo. ACS got their first win of the season over Fannindel 35-31, and get set to take on a San Jacinto squad that has competitive losses to McLean (36-30), Lubbock Titans (22-7) and Miami (52-36).
THE SPREAD DCTF: N/A
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL.COM: ABILENE CHRISTIAN BY 36
THE PICK: ABILENE CHRISTIAN
ACU (2-1) AT LAMAR (2-1) — SATURDAY, 6 P.M.
Conference foes meet for a non-conference game in Beaumont Saturday evening. They’ll meet again in Abilene October 16 for a game that will count in the WAC standings. ACU is coming off back-to-back home wins over Louisiana College and UT-Permian Basin, while the Cardinals won at Northern Colorado last week 17-10.
THE PICK: LAMAR
#7 hardin-simmons (3-0, 2-0) at #2 mary hardin-baylor (3-0, 2-0) — saturday, 6 p.m.
The annual American Southwest Conference game of the year is set for Belton Saturday when Hardin-Simmons visits Mary Hardin-Baylor. This game has decided at least a share of the ASC title every year since 1998, and this year should be no different. Both teams actually dropped in D3football.com Top 25 after wins last week. The Cowboys didn’t look great but got past Belhaven 21-16, while the Crusaders crushed Southwestern 54-3.
THE PICK: MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
HOWARD PAYNE (3-0, 2-0) AT EAST TEXAS BAPTIST (2-1, 1-1) — SATURDAY, 1 P.M.
The Yellow Jackets head to East Texas Baptist looking to stay perfect against the 2-1 Tigers. Howard Payne’s offense has been unstoppable through three games, racking up a school-record 754 yards of total offense in last week’s 55-21 win over Hendrix in Prosper. ETBU is coming off a 24-15 win over McMurry.
THE PICK: HOWARD PAYNE
SOUTHWESTERN (1-2, 1-1) AT MCMURRY (0-2, 0-2) — SATURDAY, 4 P.M.
The War Hawks hope to earn their first victory of the season as they host Southwestern this weekend. McMurry has been close so far, falling to Howard Payne and ETBU by a combined 15 points in their first two outings. The Pirates lone win this season came two weeks ago over Belhaven 34-27. They lost to UMHB last week 54-3.
THE PICK: MCMURRY
