Blitz Picks - Week 14
WEEK 1: 33-47, 70.2%
WEEK 2: 39-61, 63.9%
WEEK 3: 52-64, 81.3%
WEEK 4: 43-56, 76.8%
WEEK 5: 50-64, 78.2%
WEEK 6: 33-41, 80.5%
WEEK 7: 47-56, 83.9%
WEEK 8: 49-54, 90.7%
WEEK 9: 47-55, 85.5%
WEEK 10: 46-53, 86.8%
WEEK 11: 48-55, 87.3%
WEEK 12: 45-53, 84.9%
WEEK 13: 18-27, 66.7%
OVERALL: 502-633, 79.3%
I guess I went with my heart over my head on some of the area matchups last week, hitting for the worst percentage since week two.
But the show must go on, and we still have plenty of area teams looking to make a push to round four, plus ACU and Hardin-Simmons hoping to advance in the NCAA playoffs.
*The spread is from PigskinPrep.com for 11-man games and Pigskin Prep and sixmanfootball.com for six-man games.
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Stephenville leads series 1-0
Last meeting: Stephenville 34, Randall 13 in 2010 playoffs
The Spread: Stephenville by 24
The Pick: Stephenville
Graham leads series 6-3
Last meeting: Graham 45, Glen Rose 21 in 2023
The Spread: Graham by 17
The Pick: Graham
First meeting in series
The Spread: Brock by 22
The Pick: Brock
Jim Ned leads series 1-0
Last meeting: Jim Ned 21, Paradise 18 in 2020 playoffs
The Spread: Jim Ned by 3
The Pick: Jim Ned
Wall leads series 2-1
Last meeting: Wall 55, Littlefield 7 in 2016
The Spread: Wall by 22
The Pick: Wall
Tolar leads series 23-20
Last meeting: Tolar 23, Holliday 20 in 2012
The Spread: Holliday by 12
The Pick: Tolar
Stamford leads series 11-7-1
Last meeting: Stamford 41, Cisco 14 in 2024
The Spread: Stamford by 30
The Pick: Stamford
First meeting in series
The Spread: Hamilton by 6
The Pick: Hamilton
Albany leads series 7-1
Last meeting: Albany 19, Muenster 14 in 2023 playoffs
The Spread: Muenster by 12
The Pick: Muenster
Series tied 5-5
Last meeting: Water Valley 55, Westbrook 34 in 2021
The Spread Pigskin Prep: Westbrook by 1
The Spread 6MFB: Westbrook by 26
The Pick: Westbrook
Jonesboro leads series 6-4
Last meeting: Gordon 54, Jonesboro 8 in 2023 playoffs
The Spread Pigskin Prep: Gordon by 7
The Spread 6MFB: Gordon by 45
The Pick: Gordon
Jayton leads series 13-3
Last meeting: Benjamin 85, Jayton 40 in 2023 quarterfinals
The Spread Pigskin Prep: Jayton by 13
The Spread 6MFB: Jayton by 45
The Pick: Jayton
Richland Springs leads series 6-1
Last meeting: Oglesby 62, Richland Springs 48 in 2023 semifinals
The Spread Pigskin Prep: Richland Springs by 4
The Spread 6MFB: Richland Springs by 3
The Pick: Richland Springs
COLLEGE
FCS FIRST ROUND
NORTHERN ARIZONA (8-4) AT ACU (8-4)
SATURDAY, 2 P.M.
First meeting in series
The Wildcats make their FCS playoff debut Saturday at home against Northern Arizona, which will be their second straight game against a team called the Lumberjacks.
Last week didn’t go so well as ACU fell at Stephen F. Austin to close the regular season, but that non-conference game has much less meaning than a playoff game at home.
NAU finished tied for third in the Big Sky Conference with Idaho, behind unbeaten Montana State and 10-2 UC Davis. You’ll remember the Vandals beat ACU in Abilene back in September 27-24. NAU lost at Idaho 23-17, and they did not have to play Montana State or UC Davis this season. They finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak, including a 44-3 win at Northern Colorado. ACU beat Northern Colorado on the road 24-22 on a last-second field goal in September.
The winner of this game advances to face national power and number two seed North Dakota State in the second round
THE PICK: ACU
DIVISION III SECOND ROUND
UMHB (6-3) AT HARDIN-SIMMONS (10-0)
SATURDAY, 12 P.M.
Mary Hardin-Baylor leads series 24-9
Last meeting: HSU 27, UMHB 19 on Nov. 9
The Cowboys and Crusaders meet for the third time this season, with the Cru hoping the third time will be the charm after falling twice already to HSU.
The ASC champion Cowboys got a first-round playoff bye and will now meet the UMHB team that got past Trinity last week.
According to HSU, the Cowboys have only played another team three times in a season once before when they faced Howard Payne twice in the regular season and again in the NAIA playoffs in 1995. HSU took two of three from the Jackets that year.
The winner of this game advances to face the Texas Lutheran/Linfield winner. If the Cowboys advance, they will play at home again.
More game notes, courtesy of the HSU Sports Information Department:
Opening Kick
Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor will battle for the third time this season and the third time in seven weeks…HSU has won 14 straight games at Shelton Stadium…HSU comes into the game with three straight wins over the Crusaders…HSU is looking for its 11th win for the first time since the 2000 season, a campaign that ended in the national semifinal…HSU is also looking to snap an 11-game losing streak in the playoffs. All 11 of those games have been to either Mary Hardin-Baylor, Trinity or Linfield, all three teams who are in the HSU side of the bracket this year.
How We Got Here
Hardin-Simmons comes into the game as an automatic qualifier as the champion of the American Southwest Conference. The Cowboys are 10-0 on the year and making their 13th trip to the NCAA playoffs. Mary Hardin-Baylor comes into the tournament as an at-large bid and they advanced to the second round with a 29-22 win over Trinity.
ASC Champions
Hardin-Simmons claimed its second-straight and 10th overall American Southwest Conference Championship this season. HSU has won ASC titles in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2015, 2023 and 2024.
In The Polls
HSU is ranked fourth in the D3football.com poll and is fifth in the American Football Coaches Association poll. HSU has been ranked for 101 straight weeks and in the top 10 for 64 of those weeks.
Broadcast Note
The NCAA will stream all NCAA Division III playoff games on ESPN+. This will require you to have a subscription to ESPN which is $11.95 per month. We want everyone to know in advance so you can plan accordingly. There will not be a local stream available. Al Pickett and Ty Crain will have the call.
Up Next
The winner of Saturday's game will advance to the third round and play the winner of the Linfield/Texas Lutheran game. If HSU wins, the game will be in Abilene. If HSU loses, the season is over.
A Cowboys Win Would
- Be the 519th in school history.
- Be the fourth-straight against UMHB.
- Be the first win in the playoffs since the 2000 NCAA quarterfinals against Trinity.
- Be the 14th straight win at Shelton Stadium.
Last Time Versus UMHB
Hardin-Simmons beat Mary Hardin-Baylor, 27-19, on Nov. 9 in Abilene to claim its second-straight American Southwest Conference title. The Cowboys led 27-3 after the third quarter. UMHB scored on a pair of Daunte Blake short touchdown runs of four and two yards and both times the Crusaders converted the two-point conversion. UMHB had the ball with a chance to tie the game with 1:48 to play but LeBron Tah and Hayden Hays split a sack on first down and Charlie Patterson added one of his own on second down. UMHB couldn't convert on third and fourth down and the Cowboys ran out the clock on the victory. The Cowboys limited the Crusaders to 238 yards of offense in the game. Heading to the fourth quarter, UMHB only had 77 yards in the contest. UMHB finished the game with 45 yards rushing on 30 attempts. Charlie Patterson was a dominant force in the contest recording 12 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks for 27 yards. LeBron Tah had 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
Hey, Have We Met?
This will be the third meeting between Mary Hardin-Baylor and Hardin-Simmons this season. The only time the Cowboys played an opponent three times was 1995 when they played Howard Payne twice in the regular season and again in the NAIA playoffs.
Common Foe
HSU is making its 13th trip to the NCAA Division III playoffs and this will be the sixth time that HSU and Mary Hardin-Baylor have faced off. UMHB has won the previous five playoff meetings.
HSU-UMHB Series
UMHB owns a 24-9 advantage in the all-time series on the field. The Crusaders lead 11-5 all-time in Abilene. However, the Cowboys have won three straight games in the series. With a win, the Cowboys' four-game winning streak would tie the longest streak in the series for HSU. The Cowboys do not have a player on their roster that has played for UMHB. Tyler Woods, a tight end who scored last week against Trinity, is the only Crusader player who has played for the Cowboys.
Roster Tidbits
Obviously getting to the playoffs is a big goal but for a team that has played 106 different people in a varsity game there are some players that have played and some that have even started in every game on special teams that don't make the 58-man playoff roster. Position flexibility is always a key. The roster has been basically set with a couple of players that are waiting to see if they can play with injuries. There will be some adjusting to the last couple of spots. The roster breakdown is 20 seniors, 19 juniors, 11 sophomores and 11 freshmen. The 10 freshmen on the NCAA roster are the most in a playoff game for the Cowboys. Last year the Cowboys had six and only two played in the game. HSU has 29 players on the roster this year who were on the playoff roster last year. Braden Hargrove is the only expected defensive starter on Saturday that started last year. Eight offensive players started a year ago and are slated to start Saturday -- Noah Garcia, Tailon Garrett, Brock Gibson, Dozie Ifeadi, Hayden Philpot, Khalil Spivey, Garrett Tittle and Bode Walters.
Regular-Season Perfection
The Cowboys completed their first undefeated regular season since 2004. HSU has only had three perfect regular seasons in its Division III history (1999, 2000 and 2004). There are 11 undefeated teams in the nation: Cortland State, DePauw, HSU, Hope, Lake Forest, Mount Union, North Central, Saint John's, Salisbury, Springfield and UMass-Dartmouth. HSU and Texas Wesleyan are the only undefeated college teams in the state of Texas.
Third-Down Efficiency
The Cowboys have converted 50 percent on third down this season, which is 17th nationally. HSU is 5-0 this season and 52-0 all-time under Jesse Burleson when they convert over 50 percent in a game on third down. On fourth down, the Cowboys are converting at 78.6 percent clip, which ranks third in the country. The defense ranks 30th nationally allowing just a 30.7 percent conversion rate. HSU is 5-0 on the year and 41-2 all-time under Burleson when allowing teams to convert at a rate of 25 percent or less.
Playing In Front
HSU has scored first in all but two games this season. ETBU scored first in the last game and led for 6:38 and UMHB kicked a field goal in the last meeting and led for 7:13. HSU also trailed 1:40 against Endicott. In total, the Cowboys have trailed just 16:31 out of the 600 minutes this season.
Balanced Attack
HSU always strives for a balanced attack and this year is no exception. HSU averages 223.4 yards per game passing and 184.7 yards per game on the ground. HSU is averaging 6.5 yards per play this season and averages 37.6 rushing attempts per game and 25.3 passing attempts.
Taking Care of Business Early
The Cowboys have been dominant in the first quarter this season, outscoring opponents 113-16 in the opening frame. ETBU scored on the first possession in the last game, which is the first time this year has scored either on the first possession of the game or the first possession of the second half. HSU's defense has forced a punt in 14 of those 20 first drives. The Cowboys have outscored opponents 149-50 in the second quarter and 92-7 in the third quarter. Opponents scored 102 of their 175 points on the Cowboys in the fourth quarter.
Much Needed Bye
The Cowboys had their bye this season after the second game and they played eight straight games. The earned bye last week came at the right time as the Cowboys were able to heal up some nagging injuries and get refreshed for what they hope is a five-game playoff stretch.
Non-Offensive Scores
Both teams have had a history of finding ways to score either in the kicking game or on defense. HSU has recorded six non-offensive touchdowns and two safeties this season. Dameon Gomes has three kickoff returns for touchdowns, Brandt Patek had a fumble recovery for a touchdown against North American, Micah Henderson returned an interception in the first UMHB game for a score and Mike Akinbisola scored on a 65-yard blocked field goal return against ETBU. Keyon House's interception in the UMHB game in Abilene right before half was returned 46 yards and set up a field goal on the last play of the half for the Cowboys to push the lead to 20-3.
Model of Consistency
Hardin-Simmons has been a model of consistency. HSU has had a winning record in 34 of the last 35 years and they have won at least eight games every year since 2015 (minus the COVID shortened season). Only four teams in the nation have a longer streak than the Cowboys' eight straight eight or more win seasons – Mount Union 34, Johns Hopkins 15, Wheaton (10) and Saint John's 10.
Offensive Notes
- Jeff Whitehead is in his 14th season as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys and his teams are always among the national leaders in total offense and scoring offense.
- His teams have averaged over 400 yards every year and over 500 yards a game on four different occasions. The Cowboys have averaged over 35 points a game in all but one season under Whitehead.
- The Cowboys lead the ASC in scoring at 45.1 points per game and rank 16th nationally.
- HSU is averaging 45.1 points per game with a new quarterback, three new receivers and a freshman running back that is second on the team in rushing.
- The Cowboys led the ASC with 184.7 yards rushing per game. It is the third-straight year the Cowboys have led the league in rushing. HSU needs 153 more rushing yards to hit the 2000-yard mark as a team for the seventh-straight season.
Defensive Notes
Craig Neece is in his first season as the defensive coordinator and has brought an attacking-style defense that emphasizes getting to the quarterback.
The Cowboys lead the ASC with 29 sacks on the season. HSU has also forced 18 turnovers on the year, nine fumbles and nine interceptions.
As it turned out the Cowboys only had one player (Braden Hargrove) that started the season opener on defense that was a starter a year ago.
The defense has been fueled by three impact transfers that earned first-team all-ASC honors. Charlie Patterson and Kaiden Roden at linebacker and Harrison Foster at safety.
The Cowboys led the ASC in scoring defense allowing just 17.5 points per game. The Cowboys also led the conference in total defense allowing just 295.1 yards per game.
Special Teams Notes
The Cowboys' special forces units have been a true weapon this season. J.J. Elkins heads up the special teams unit.
HSU ranks third nationally, averaging 27.5 yards per kickoff return. HSU is 32nd nationally in net punting at 36.8 yards per kick. They lead the nation in punt return defense allowing -1.4 yards per return. HSU is 14th nationally in punt returns at 14.6 per return.
Dameon Gomes is fourth national in combined kick returns with 924 yards. He is first nationally with three kickoff return TDs, is fourth in kickoff return average at 31.9 and third in punt returns at 19.1 per return.
Freshman kicker Ethan Brumgard has been a weapon. He has 38 on 78 kickoffs, he is averaging 37.2 yards per punt. He has also taken over placekicking duties and went 9-for-9 on PATs and 3-for-3 on field goals in the final two games.
Senior Braden Hargrove has three blocked kicks on the season, he was an All-American special teams player a year ago when he had four blocks. He is the school's single-season and career (8) blocked kick leader.
