Blitz Picks - Week 10
We can all agree the playoffs are awesome. Two teams play: one team moves on, one team goes home.
But the final two weeks of the regular season are pretty darn good as well, where just about every team still has at least a glimmer of hope to make the playoffs. The battles in these final games usually produce some classic contests, and we can only hope that happens this season as well. District championships will be clinched, playoff berths will be clinched and some teams will have to start focusing on basketball.
The picks in week nine were better than week eight by a long shot, but missing on three of four in the college ranks keeps me under 80% for a second straight week.
Games of the week: Lubbock Cooper at Wylie, Snyder at Greenwood, Roscoe at Lockney, Santo at Albany, Ira at Hermleigh, Lingleville at Baird, Rule at Benjamin
Season: 261-338, 77.2%
Week 1: 31-41, 75.6%
Week 2: 29-41, 70.7%
Week 3: 30-37, 81.1%
Week 4: 31-41, 75.6%
Week 5: 33-38, 86.8%
Week 6: 23-28, 82.1%
Week 7: 25-31, 80.7%
Week 8: 28-41, 68.3%
Week 9: 31-40, 77.5%
Abilene High (5-3, 3-1) at Midland (2-6, 1-3)
The Eagles look to keep their district title hopes alive as they hit the road for the final time in the regular season to take on Midland High. Abilene High has won five of six and seems to be getting better as the season progresses, while the Bulldogs are battling for their playoff lives and have lost three straight in district after getting things going with a win over Odessa. The Eagles have the luxury of facing a team coming off a big loss to district leading Midland Legacy for the third week in a row, and the first two turned out well against Frenship and Odessa High.
THE SPREAD: ABILENE HIGH BY 19
THE PICK: ABILENE HIGH
Other 6-2A games: Legacy (7-1, 4-0) at San Angelo Central (4-4, 2-2), Frenship (3-5, 0-4) at Odessa (3-6, 1-4), Permian (7-2, 4-1) is off
Cooper (5-3, 3-2) at Azle (6-2, 4-1)
The Cougars head east to face a good team this week, which has not gone well for them so far in 2021. Cooper got off to slow starts in road losses to Justin Northwest and Fort Worth Brewer and now hope to buck that trend at Azle. The Hornets fell out of a first place tie in 3-5A Division I thanks to a 42-27 home loss to Brewer last week and will be anxious to get back on track. The Cougars can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a Crowley loss to Saginaw.
THE SPREAD: AZLE BY 9
THE PICK: AZLE
Other 3-5A Division I games: Arlington Heights (2-6, 1-4) at Granbury (3-5, 1-4), Saginaw (1-7, 0-5) at Crowley (1-7, 1-4), Northwest (6-2, 5-0) at Brewer (7-1, 5-0)
#5 Lubbock Cooper (7-1, 3-0) at Wylie (3-5, 1-2)
The Bulldogs face their biggest district challenge of the season as they welcome fifth ranked Lubbock Cooper to town. A Wylie win would go a very long way in helping them reach the playoffs, and they will have to play their best game of the season to do it. The Bulldogs do have some momentum behind them after they rallied to beat Randall last week. Cooper’s only loss this season was 14-13 to 6A Frenship, and they have beaten Plainview 55-27, Rider 20-12 and Wichita Falls 52-21 in district play so far.
THE SPREAD: LUBBOCK COOPER BY 19
THE PICK: LUBBOCK COOPER
Other District 3-5A Division II games: WF Rider (7-1, 2-1) at Canyon Randall (5-3, 2-1), Plainview (1-7, 0-3) at Wichita Falls (2-6, 1-2)
Waxahachie Life (1-7, 0-3) at Brownwood (3-5, 1-2)
The Lions can clinch a playoff spot for the 13th straight year with a win over the Mustangs. Brownwood snapped a three-game losing streak with a win at Alvarado last week and look to stay on track against a Waxahachie Life team that has dropped their three district games by a combined 148-20. Their only victory this season is over 2-5 North Dallas back in week three. The Lions offense has been great lately, now they hope to work on getting better defensively before wrapping up the season against rival Stephenville.
THE SPREAD: BROWNWOOD BY 24
THE PICK: BROWNWOOD
Other District 5-4A Division I games: Stephenville (8-0, 3-0) at Midlothian Heritage (6-2, 2-1), Alvarado (2-6, 2-1) at Waco La Vega (5-3, 2-1)
Snyder (6-2, 1-1) at Midland Greenwood (4-4, 2-1)
The Tigers come off their bye week with another key district contest, this one at Midland Greenwood. The Rangers are a half-game up in the standings after taking down Monahans 41-14 on the road last week. Snyder’s last game was also a win over Monahans, but only by seven points. The winner in this one has the leg up for the number two seed from the district in the playoffs.
THE SPREAD: GREENWOOD BY 9
THE PICK: SNYDER
Other District 1-4A Division II games: Monahans (6-2, 0-2) at Pecos (4-4, 0-2), Sweetwater (6-3, 3-0) is off
Breckenridge (3-5, 2-1) at #1 Jim Ned (8-0, 3-0)
The Buckaroos came up just short of making this a district title clash when they dropped a 29-26 decision to Wall last week. Jim Ned has not been tested in district play and can wrap up the 3-3A Division I title with a win.
THE SPREAD: JIM NED BY 31
THE PICK: JIM NED
Clyde (1-7, 1-2) at Wall (4-3, 2-1)
The Bulldogs need to pull off an upset to stay in the playoff chase. Wall won at Breckenridge last week in a game that will likely decide the two-seed from the district. Clyde broke into the win column two weeks ago but could not put together a winning streak with their home loss to Early.
THE SPREAD: WALL BY 30
THE PICK: WALL
Early (6-2, 1-2) at TLCA San Angelo (0-8, 0-3)
The Longhorns playoff hopes got a shot in the arm last week and they should get another this week at winless TLCA San Angelo. Jaxyn Price’s return to the lineup helped Early get into the win column in district play and back in the playoff race, now they visit an Eagle squad that has been outscored in district play 195-35.
THE SPREAD: EARLY BY 44
THE PICK: EARLY
Ballinger (3-4, 1-2) at Bangs (1-6, 1-2)
The Bearcats make the short drive to Bangs in a game that will keep one team in the playoff race and make the other start thinking about basketball season. Ballinger shut out Ingram Moore 61-0 last week to stay in playoff contention, while the Dragons dropped at 50-25 home decision to district leading Sonora.
THE SPREAD: BALLINGER BY 15
THE PICK: BALLINGER
Other District 2-3A Division II games: Brady (4-3, 2-1) at Ingram Moore (2-6, 0-3), Grape Creek (3-5, 2-1) at Sonora (5-3, 3-0)
Merkel (3-5, 0-3) at Eastland (3-5, 2-1)
Both teams are coming off close district losses as they meet in Eastland this week. The Badgers have slim playoff chances and need to pull off the upset to stay alive, while the Mavericks can’t afford to lose another district game if they want to stay in the chase for the championship.
THE SPREAD: EASTLAND BY 18
THE PICK: EASTLAND
Other District 5-3A Division II games: Jacksboro (4-3, 2-1) at Comanche (1-7, 1-2), Dublin (7-1, 3-0) at Millsap (3-5, 1-2)
Haskell (2-6, 0-3) at Anson (3-5, 1-2)
The Indians have to win this one to have any shot at the postseason, while the Tigers hope to get their offense on track after getting shut out by Hawley last week. Haskell also got shut out las week, falling 28-0 at Forsan to drop to 0-3 in district play.
THE SPREAD: ANSON BY 15
THE PICK: ANSON
Colorado City (1-6, 1-2) at #5 Hawley (8-0, 3-0)
Hawley moves up a spot in the state rankings this week and looks to pitch an amazing sixth straight shut out as they host the Wolves this week. No UIL team in Texas has given up fewer points than the Bearcats’ 21 this season. Colorado City won’t quite be out of the playoff picture with a loss, but it will be very tough to make it.
THE SPREAD: HAWLEY BY 48
THE PICK: HAWLEY
#10 Forsan (8-0, 3-0) at Stamford (3-5, 1-2)
The Bulldogs kept playoff hopes alive with a win at Colorado City last week, now they get ready for a tougher test against unbeaten and tenth ranked Forsan. Stamford will have its hands full with the Buffaloes ground attack, and rushing defense has been a weak spot for the Buffaloes this season.
THE SPREAD: FORSAN BY 25
THE PICK: FORSAN
Cisco (6-2, 2-1) at Goldthwaite (3-5, 2-1)
The Loboes saw their 61-game district winning streak come to an end last week at Coleman, now they look to rebound with another tough road game. Like Cisco, Goldthwaite is in great shape for the playoffs but the winner of this one will likely get the number two seed and avoid facing Hawley or Forsan in the first round. The Eagles rolled past Winters last week 49-13 to set up this showdown.
THE SPREAD: CISCO BY 19
THE PICK: CISCO
#9 Coleman (7-0, 3-0) at San Saba (2-6, 2-1)
The Bluecats earned one of the biggest wins in the state last week, now they must put it behind them and focus on a San Saba team that has vaulted into the playoff chase with back-to-back wins. They say defense travels, and means Coleman should be in good shape. The Bluecats have only given up 32 points this year, tied for second fewest behind Hawley in the state (with D’Hanis from District 15-2A Division II).
THE SPREAD: COLEMAN BY 22
THE PICK: COLEMAN
De Leon (0-8, 0-3) at Winters (1-6, 0-3)
The Blizzards have a slim shot at the playoffs, but a loss to winless De Leon would knock them out of the race completely. Winters has lost their three district contests by an average of 38.7 points per game, while the Bearcats have dropped theirs by an average of 49 per contest.
THE SPREAD: WINTERS BY 18
THE PICK: WINTERS
Roscoe (7-1, 2-0) at Lockney (7-1, 2-0)
The district championship is on the line as the Plowboys visit the Longhorns Friday night. Roscoe has won seven straight with their only loss coming to powerful Hawley, while Lockney is also on a seven-game winning streak after dropping its season opener to Ropes.
THE SPREAD: ROSCOE BY 13
THE PICK: ROSCOE
Other District 5-2A Division II games: Ralls (5-3, 1-1) at Crosbyton (4-5, 1-2), Hamlin (0-9, 0-3) is off
Santo (8-0, 2-0) at #4 Albany (7-0, 2-0)
The Wildcats have a chance to see how good they really as they visit fourth-ranked Albany Friday night. The Lions have not been tested this season, their closest game was a 27-point win over 3A Dublin in week one. Santo is clearly the top challenger to Albany in the district and gave them a game last year, leading 14-0 before ending up on the wrong end of a 34-14 score.
THE SPREAD: ALBANY BY 29
THE PICK: ALBANY
Other District 8-2A Division II games: Hico (4-5, 1-2) at Meridian (1-7, 0-2), Cross Plains (5-3, 1-2) is off
Rotan (5-3, 0-2) at Aspermont (2-6, 0-2)
Both teams are looking for their first district win as they meet in Aspermont this week. The Yellowhammers have losses to district leaders Ira and Hermleigh, while the Hornets have dropped games to Hermleigh and Roby. It looks to me like the only way for Aspermont to reach the playoffs would be if they won out, Ira loses to Hermligh and Roby beats Rotan last week to make a three-way tie for second in the district.
THE SPREAD DCTF: ROTAN BY 22
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: ROTAN BY 45
THE PICK: ROTAN
#9 Ira (6-1, 2-0) at #10 Hermleigh (9-0, 3-0)
This one is for the district title for the second straight season. Ira got the best of Hermleigh 68-21 a year ago, snapping the Cardinals nine-game winning streak and sending them to the playoffs as the number two seed. Hermleigh has the home field advantage this time around as they look to write a different script. The Cardinals have earned mercy-rule wins in all nine games this season, including a 73-28 victory at Rotan a week ago. Ira beat the Hammers by 14 the week before.
THE SPREAD DCTF: PICK ‘EM
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: HERMLEIGH BY 3
THE PICK: HERMLEIGH
Bronte (2-6, 1-1) at Highland (4-5, 1-2)
The Hornets are out of the playoff picture and looking to hand Bronte a defeat to completely knock them out of the race. Highland is playing its final game of the season and looking to end up with at least a .500 record.
THE SPREAD DCTF: HIGHLAND BY 29
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: HIGHLAND BY 45
THE PICK: HIGHLAND
Robert Lee (2-6, 0-2) at Westbrook (4-4, 2-0)
The Wildcats look to stay atop of the district standings as they host the Steers Friday night. They’ll have to avoid a letdown after knocking off now #7 Sterling City in a classic game last week.
THE SPREAD DCTF: WESTBROOK BY 78
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: WESTBROOK BY 45
THE PICK: WESTBROOK
Lingleville (6-1, 2-0) at Baird (5-2, 1-1)
The Bears need this one to reach the playoffs for a second straight season, while a Lingleville win will get them a shot at top-ranked May for the district title next week. Baird needs a win in this one and next week at Gorman and a May win over Lingleville next week to get back in the playoffs. Lingleville has won six straight after a season opening loss to Lometa, and the most impressive victory was 60-12 at Blanket — the Tigers only loss of the season. Baird has lost their last two games after a 5-0 start, but the home field should be enough for them to get past the Cardinals.
THE SPREAD DCTF: PICK ‘EM
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: BAIRD BY 8
THE PICK: BAIRD
Gorman (4-3, 0-2) at Santa Anna (6-3, 0-3)
These two teams are not in the playoff chase. The Mountaineers have struggled to three straight mercy-rule losses in district play after starting the year 6-0. They’d love to finish the season on a high note.
THE SPREAD DCTF: GORMAN BY 12
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: GORMAN BY 6
THE PICK: GORMAN
Evant (4-5, 0-2) at Zephyr (0-9, 0-2)
The Bulldogs wrap up the season at home against Evant in a game without playoff implications. Zephyr has battled low numbers all season and is looking to snap a 13-game losing streak.
THE SPREAD DCTF: EVANT BY 28
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: EVANT BY 45
THE PICK: EVANT
Other District 15-1A Division I games: Lometa (7-1, 2-0) at Jonesboro (9-0, 2-0)
Blackwell (3-5, 2-0) at Trent (3-6, 1-2)
The Hornets look to stay at the top of the district as they visit Trent. The Gorillas suffered a tough setback at TLCA Abilene last week that severely hurt their playoff chances, now they host a tough Blackwell team in their regular season finale.
THE SPREAD DCTF: BLACKWELL BY 22
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: BLACKWELL BY 45
THE PICK: BLACKWELL
Loraine (5-3, 2-0) at TLCA Abilene (2-6, 1-1)
The Eagles need a win to keep their postseason hopes alive, while the Bulldogs hope to stay perfect in district play to set up a week 11 championship clash against Blackwell.
THE SPREAD DCTF: LORAINE BY 45
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: LORAINE BY 62
THE PICK: LORAINE
Rule (4-2, 1-0) at #9 Benjamin (8-0, 1-0)
The District 8-1A Division II title will be on the line when the Bobcats visit state-ranked Benjamin. Rule has only played twice since their last on-field win at Patton Springs on Sept. 10. Since then, they’ve lost to Throckmorton and Loop, missed a pair of games due to COVID, and got a forfeit win over Harrold. Benjamin has “45’s” in five of their eight wins this season.
THE SPREAD DCTF: BENJAMIN BY 31
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: BENJAMIN BY 45
THE PICK: BENJAMIN
Other District 8-1A Division II games: Harrold (0-4, 0-1) at Chillicothe (1-7, 0-1)
Woodson (4-3, 2-0) at Lueders-Avoca (1-5, 1-1)
The Raiders and Cowboys look to boost their playoff chances in this one. Lueders-Avoca picked up victory number one of the season last week and now get set to face a Woodson squad that has beaten up on Paint Creek and Moran to start district play.
THE SPREAD DCTF: WOODSON BY 3
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: WOODSON BY 4
THE PICK: LUEDERS-AVOCA
Moran (1-6, 1-2) at #8 Throckmorton (8-0, 2-0)
The Bulldogs face yet another tough test as they play their final district game of the season at state-ranked Throckmorton. The Greyhounds look to stay perfect on their way to the postseason.
THE SPREAD DCTF: THROCKMORTON BY 68
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: THROCKMORTON BY 45
THE PICK: THROCKMORTON
Brookesmith (1-7, 0-2) at Blanket (7-1, 2-0)
Brookesmith has forfeited due to lack of players. Blanket improves to 8-1, 3-0 while the Mustangs fall to 1-8, 0-3.
Panther Creek (3-4, 1-1) at Rising Star (4-4, 1-2)
The Wildcats have home field advantage for their final game of the season. Panther Creek can stay in the playoff race with a win, but will have to follow it up with a victory over Blanket next week as well.
THE SPREAD DCTF: RISING STAR BY 23
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: RISING STAR BY 45
THE PICK: RISING STAR
strawn jv at ranger (4-4)
The Bulldogs picked up this game this week, and, despite being against a JV squad, will not be a cakewalk against the Strawn junior varsity. Ranger has won three in a row and can get over .500 for the season with a victory Thursday night.
THE SPREAD DCTF: N/A
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: RANGER BY 45
THE PICK: RANGER
Abilene Christian (4-3, 3-1) at Wichita Falls Christian (4-3, 1-3)
The Panthers are picking up steam as the season progresses and can run their winning streak to three games as they visit Wichita Falls Christian this week. A victory also keeps Abilene Christian a game back of Kingdom Prep in the district title chase.
THE SPREAD DCTF: N/A
THE SPREAD SIXMANFOOTBALL: ABILENE CHRISTIAN BY 32
THE PICK: ABILENE CHRISTIAN
ACU (4-3, 1-2) at Stephen. F. austin (4-3, 0-2)
The Wildcats return to action after the bye week with a road trip to face Stephen F. Austin. The two teams met in Arlington in a classic that SFA won 35-32 in overtime in 2020. This time the Wildcats have a long road-trip ahead of them to face a Lumberjack squad still in search of their first conference win. ACU got past Lamar their last time out, 24-17.
THE PICK: STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
#8 Hardin-Simmons (6-1, 5-1) at Howard Payne (6-1, 5-1)
The Yellow Jackets suffered their first loss of the season last week against Belhaven and now get set for an even tougher test against the Cowboys. Hardin-Simmons put together its most complete performance of the season in a 69-7 homecoming win over Southwestern and needs to win to stay in the playoff picture. The same goes for Howard Payne, who could make a postseason appearance with wins over HSU and Mary Hardin-Baylor the following Saturday. HSU has dominated the series lately, winning the last 13 — including a 41-14 victory in Abilene in the spring.
THE PICK: HARDIN-SIMMONS
Sul Ross State (1-5, 1-5) at Mcmurry (2-4, 2-4)
The War Hawks dropped a 28-21 road decision at Texas Lutheran last week and now hope to bounce back at home against Sul Ross. The Lobos have lost three straight, but their only victory this season was 12-10 over the TLU squad that knocked off McMurry last week.
THE PICK: MCMURRY
#14 Tyler (4-3, 3-2) at Cisco (4-3, 3-2)
The Wranglers look to run their winning streak to four games as they host another key conference game against Tyler. Cisco is coming off its biggest win of the season last week at previously unbeaten NMMI 38-19, now they face a Tyler team that lost at NMMI two weeks ago 49-13 but did beat Blinn last week 42-14.
THE PICK: CISCO